For Scenario 1, SVR rates gradually increased to 90% (G1/2/4) and 80% (G3) by 2016. In the same time frame, treatment eligibility was increased to 95% for all genotypes.

Liver fibrosis stage was not considered in determining eligibility. The 2013 values for annual treated and newly diagnosed populations were held constant (Fig. 4). Scenario 2 included the same SVR and treatment eligibility increases as Scenario 1. In addition, the annual number of people treated gradually check details increased to 13 500 by 2018, and treatment was extended to individuals up to age 74 years (Fig. 4). Scenario 3 included the same events as outlined for Scenario 2. In addition, treatment restriction based on fibrosis score was considered. Restricting treatment to people with fibrosis scores of either ≥ F3 or ≥ F2 during 2013–2030 resulted in an insufficient number of eligible people to accommodate see more increases in the treated population. Instead, an approach was used where treatment was limited to people with fibrosis stages ≥ F3 beginning in 2014 and then was expanded to all patients (≥ F0) beginning in 2018 (Fig. 4).

With the base case, there were an estimated 233 490 (183 690–248 700) people with chronic HCV in 2013 (Fig. 2a); the median age was 49 years (Fig. 2b). Within this population, liver disease stage estimates were 154 700 (66%) for F0/1, 32 840 (14%) for F2, 29 770 (13%) for F3, 13 850 (6%) for compensated cirrhosis, 1430 (0.6%) for decompensated cirrhosis, and 590 for HCC (0.2%). In 2013, an estimated 530 people with chronic HCV died from HCV-related liver disease. The prevalence of chronic HCV peaks at 255 500 in 2025 and declines to 251 970 by 2030. There will be 38 130 people with compensated cirrhosis in 2030 compared with 13 850

in 2013 (Fig. 2c). In addition, there will be 2040 cases of HCC and 4170 people with Thiamet G decompensated cirrhosis by 2030 compared with 590 and 1430 in 2013. Liver-related deaths in 2030 will number 1740 compared with 530 in 2013 (Fig. 5f). In 2013, 7% of people with chronic HCV are estimated to have compensated cirrhosis or more-advanced liver disease (decompensated cirrhosis, HCC, or liver transplantation) while this proportion will increase to 18% in 2030. Costs are projected to increase from $224 million for the year 2013 to $305 million/year by 2030 (Fig. 2a). Total cumulative costs (2013–2030) are estimated at $4934 million. In 2013, 23% of costs were incurred among people with cirrhosis or advanced liver disease; the proportion is projected to increase to 50% by 2030 (Fig. 2d). The estimated lifetime cost for a male aged 30–34 years organized by disease state in 2013 is shown in Figure 3. Costs generally increased with HCV disease progression. However, lifetime cost associated with HCC was relatively low due to high mortality. With this scenario (Fig.